Chief of Defence Force,

Service Chiefs,

Graduands of 53rd Command and Staff Course,

23rd Command and Staff Course (National Service),

18th and 19th Command and Staff Course (Executive),

Distinguished guests,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Introduction

It feels very good that, as with the rest of Singapore, we are holding the graduation ceremony and dinner of this year's Command and Staff Course at the Istana tonight. The last time we did this was more than two years ago, and this resumption of activities uplifts the society. As I said in another meeting, you should enjoy it now because the next variant might be around the corner – so make hay while the sun shines… Especially too, that we can meet together with our loved ones and significant others.

Please accept my heartiest congratulations to the 231 graduands tonight – Regular SAF officers, 48 NS Commanders, one Singapore Police Force Officer, as well as 17 International Officers from 11 countries.

Evolvng Geopolitical Landscape

We are seated here in the comfort of this grand Istana without restrictions – Singapore is in a much better place compared to the dreadful past two years. But for the World at large, the systemic risks have worsened considerably. I think I am stating the obvious that the World has changed on us, in the post COVID-19 and post Ukraine invasion era. All countries will have to grapple with the aftermath and impact of these two epochal events. One would have to be extremely naïve or sheltered to think that our World can revert to status quo ante hereafter.

Especially for all of us here tonight in the security arena, the risks of actual conflicts both regionally or globally have gone up significantly. We must therefore redouble our efforts on two fronts. First, to prevent conflicts and second if that fails to mitigate the fallout to protect our countries as custodians of our nations' sovereignty and people's safety. What can be done?

Importance of Diplomacy and Deterrence

The key to prevention or cessation of conflicts is diplomacy, both state and defence diplomacy. All of us here tonight are from Ministry of Defence or the Armed Forces, but none of you who are in the military arena believes that you are a vehicle for diplomacy. Defence diplomacy, yes. But when all else fails, the military is called in. And that is the fact of life. Justful wars can and have been waged, but they must be scoped and limited as means to an acceptable end. As always, when neither side can get what they completely want, compromises to achieve that balance of needs versus wants are key levers for effective diplomacy. In continental Europe or Eurasia, it is clear that countries who abide by international norms, especially on territorial integrity, including Singapore, do not want state aggression that violates this sacrosanct principle to be condoned, let alone rewarded. But all sides know that a protracted war in Ukraine will further devastate that country and indeed impact us all globally. I am sure many of you have discussed these scenarios of what could be in the ensuing months during these courses as well as in your individual countries, many nightmarish scenarios have been conjured. I am not just referring to on-going supply chain disruption and worsening inflation, which by themselves can topple incumbent governments if the pain is too much for their populations to bear in the coming months or years ahead. The threats and risks of tactical nuclear weapons being deployed are no longer idle or theoretical. I was in the Baltic states for a conference few months ago, and it was grim and depressing hearing people discuss where such a tactical nuclear weapon could be exploded over continental Europe. The consequences are indeed too grim to contemplate. So the stakes indeed have gone up and in that context, we hope for enlightened and inspired diplomacy to achieve acceptable outcomes and to allow Ukraine to be re-built through international efforts such as the Lugano Declaration and other contributions.

In Asia, war has not broken out yet, and we must do all we can to avert it, because the impact will be calamitous. For the past 70 odd year, since World War II, there has not been simultaneously large scale physical conflicts in Europe and Asia. If that occurs, we must expect a disruptive change in the World Order, even an ominous future. The potential flashpoints or triggers are manifestly overt to all parties, but less so the actions or plans to de-escalate tensions. Should physical conflicts occur, we ask what alternative futures is war being waged for and at what price compared to the current global order, imperfect as it is.

In clarifying this conundrum for Asia, both the US and China leaders play critical roles. From their public articulations, especially now after the US strategic paper and President Xi's speech during the 20th Party Congress - what each side wants or dislikes are clear, but not the path of acceptable compromise or way forward. Against the backdrop of external forces, the US faces a mid-term election in November and China, their all-important 20th Party Congress is in progress. All of us have a vested interest and watch anxiously for both the US and China to make progress in their diplomatic initiatives following these pivotal events.

But the glaring omission is the paucity of military to military engagements between the US and China. Not only is this a glaring omission but also a dangerous one. Even in the Cold War, engagements between the US Department of Defense and their Soviet counterparts were manifold compared to those with the People's Liberation Army today. Better the chance for peace the potential aggressor you have met face to face regularly than one from reports and impressions from others.

For militaries, we can play a role in increasing mutual understanding and trust, preventing physical conflict and de-escalating tensions. International officers attending this Command and Staff Course despite the pandemic is an obvious example. I know many of you joined us – as Commandant (GKS CSC) says, you started in January when there were still restrictions. I am sure that the different perspectives that you had added to the value of the course as much as your presence, to build mutual trust and strong ties with Singapore. Beyond these personnel exchanges, the Experts Working Groups within ADMM-Plus have stepped up engagements. For Singapore, we also do our part to facilitate these interactions too. We welcome ships to dock at the Changi Naval Base, providing the platform for exchanges between navies to take place. Singapore has also hosted Shangri-La Dialogue annually for world leaders to discuss pertinent security and defence issues. We also recently inaugurated the Counter-Terrorism Information Facility at Changi, which we will work with our partner nations closely to contribute to defence against terrorist threats.

Singapore also believes that the best deterrence is a strong and relevant SAF. We continue to upgrade our conventional capabilities like operationalising the HUNTER Armoured Battle Group, enhanced our Formidable-class frigates and the next Generation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles as we build new capabilities with current threats. The newly formed Digital and Intelligence Service this year is also another prime example. MINDEF and the SAF are also addressing on the horizon threats or new scenarios – Cyber, Cloud, Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, I am sure that you would have had rich and fruitful discussions on these matters at the Command and Staff Course.

NS55: Generations of Strength

For Singapore, whether past, present or future, NS remains a bedrock for a strong defence and the SAF. This year marks 55 years of National Service. Not many countries have sustained that strong commitment to conscription. Before the Ukraine invasion, even more countries diluted or abandoned conscription. I recently read that the Latvians are now planning to re-introduce conscription. It is harder to bring it back than it is to take it away.

For Singapore, it is a salutary lesson. We must maintain National Service by ensuring universality and equity. All liable Singaporeans citizens and PRs must serve National Service and do their part to defend our country without exception. The 48 National Service men from the 23rd Command and Staff Course (National Service) are good examples to emulate as they have gone beyond mere duty to active and sacrificial commitment. I would also like to thank their families and employers for supporting you in defending Singapore. That support and commitment to defend Singapore in good and bad times will be critical for our survival, as the Ukrainians showed us.

Thank you and have a wonderful evening.