Distinguished Guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Young Leaders,

A very good morning to you.

It is always a privilege to address the MYL Roundtable. Thank you to the Körber Foundation, particularly Ms Alisa Vogt, Programme Director International Affairs, for the invitation once again.

This is my twelfth time speaking at this Roundtable, and I have been impressed by the calibre of the young leaders in attendance. Your intellect, passion, and commitment to shaping a better future give me hope.

I begin with a quote from Shakespeare “All the World’s a stage and all the men and women merely players”. We are not the main actors, but we should try to characterise the four main protagonists on this World stage, because willy nilly, they will impact our lives.

There may be more that influence global events, so feel free to add. At the end of each main actor, we should try to give a pithy synopsis of his character and role on this stage.

Actor 1: The US

First, the US remains the largest economic and military power. Last year, the US’ GDP was over US$30 trillion at current prices. The US also committed US$70.3 billion in foreign assistance in 2023. The US military is the most battle-hardened in the World, and has been fighting in wars nearly every year since WWII.

But it must be obvious to all that the US has radically changed the basis of its global reach and supremacy. There are stark differences between the US’ foreign policy now, compared to its predecessors. US foreign policy thinking is now on the opposite spectrum compared to Wilsonian exceptionalism, which centered on universal morality and principles of liberal democracy.

Now the questions - what is the revised basis for US foreign policy, i.e., how it deals with other countries?

Some would say, all relationships will now need to be evaluated through the lens of “America First” – a more transactional and practical arrangement.

Will this revised basis for US foreign policy outlast Trump, whose term ends in four years? If it does, how would other countries respond? What is the impact?

Let’s hear from some of you representing various regions.

Synopsis – Changed from architect and defender of liberal world order to disruptor.

Actor 2: China

Next, China stands as the second-largest economic and military power. Last year, China’s GDP reached US$19.5 trillion at current prices. According to OECD estimates, 2020 official development assistance from China increased to US$4.8 billion.

What is China’s foreign policy at its core? President Xi Jinping himself said, “We have comprehensively promoted major-power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics, and unswervingly opposed any unilateralism, protectionism, and bullying.”

Whatever the declared intentions, China is seen as wanting to be a global power, even usurping the US’ dominant position. Xi has reportedly said, “The East is rising, while the West is declining.” 

In line with this ambition, it has tried to provide an alternative to existing Western-led institutions, including the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI).

By 2030, China’s defence budget could reach around US$736 billion, while US defence spending is expected to exceed US$1 trillion.

Next Question: How do governments and people in your region see China’s rise? If indeed China reaches parity with the US, either economically or militarily, how would they react?

Synopsis – Regaining the Middle Kingdom

Actor 3: Europe 

Third protagonist for our discussions – Europe (including the UK and Russia). Europe collectively registers GDP of US$28.2 trillion in current prices. In 2023, the EU and its member states collectively provided €95.9 billion in official development assistance, reaffirming their position as the world’s leading donor.

How many think Europe’s influence and growth will rise or decline in, say, a decade from now? That Europe will continue to be at war? Why?

Which Euro country do you admire most?

Synopsis – Beleaguered by bureaucracy and disunity. 

Actor 4: The Global South

Last protagonist – the Global South and emerging economies. This is a big basket, but for simplicity, it represents countries that have not reached escape velocity for their development and poverty alleviation.

For those who would include your home country in that basket – do you think that it would reach middle income in, say, 10 years? Why and which country do you think is most likely to attain that status?

Assuming average growth rates match those of the 2010s, the World Bank expects three low-income countries – Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda – to pass the middle-income threshold by 2035. By 2050, only another three low-income countries are expected to make the transition.

Synopsis - Waiting for Godot 

Conclusion

These four actors will influence outcomes on the World stage. The interplay of swirling engagements amongst them bears watching.