NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN GEOPOLITICS TODAY

Introduction

Ambassador Ong Keng Yong, distinguished speakers, ladies and gentlemen.

First, let me thank the organisers, the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, for inviting me to speak at APPSMO once again.

Thank you to all who are here today, especially our foreign guests who made it from various shores to this sunny side of Singapore but today it is raining. And I hope that the last few days has been enjoyable, and one that has been fulfilling with you networking with various officers from all over the world.

25th APPSMO

And as ambassador was saying earlier, this year is a milestone for APPSMO – it has been 25 years since the first edition in August 1999.

It is no small feat for APPSMO to have made it this far. Today, APPSMO continues to serve as a useful platform for defence establishments around the world and many friends of Singapore. It enables all of you to come together and exchange ideas.

APPSMO started as a “summer camp” and was first mooted by Singapore’s late President S.R. Nathan. He had a simple goal, which was to create a programme for senior military officers from the region and beyond to discuss security and geopolitical developments with their peers. The first APPSMO was attended by about 50 participants. We have continued to keep the programme selective, with 40 to 60 participants each time. The diversity of participants has also grown over time. In total, 40 countries have sent participants to attend APPSMO in the last 25 years, including from North America, the Middle East, and Africa. And I am sure the late President Nathan would be proud to know that participants hail not just from our immediate neighbours, but also much further afield.

Even amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, APPSMO was held in 2021, albeit virtually. Notwithstanding the virtual format, more than 40 participants had dialed in from more than 20 different countries.

Strong participation during and after the pandemic is testament to the value of APPSMO as a platform for military officers and defence officials to exchange views on some of the most challenging issues of the day. Although some of these issues may be controversial, it is precisely the mandate of APPSMO to facilitate discussions on how the defence and security community could find common solutions to complex issues. Previous APPSMOs have discussed challenges relating to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and battling the insurgency in the Middle East. More recent APPSMOs have featured discussions on the war in Ukraine, the implications of US-China strategic contestation, and regional hotspots including the South China Sea.

APPSMO has also facilitated discussions on non-traditional threats that have implications on defence and security, and where militaries could provide much needed support. The very first APPSMO discussed issues around humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, driven by President Nathan’s experience of natural calamities in the region and the limited role played by the armed forces at that time. Subsequent APPSMOs discussed emerging threats such as hybrid warfare, and risks stemming from the growth and rapid adoption of emerging technologies. In the face of such complex challenges, we also discussed how militaries could work with other government agencies to provide more holistic solutions to these challenges.

In keeping with the trend of discussing the most important and challenging defence and security issues of thistime, this year’s APPSMO will focus on the theme of “Navigating Complexity in Geopolitics Today”.

As you move through a week of lectures and in-depth discussions, allow me to leave you with some food for thought.

Strengthening Mutual Understanding and Trust

In today’s increasingly fractious and polarised world, mutual understanding and trust, particularly among leaders, has often been cited as the building block for long-term peace.

Yet, against the backdrop of a more complex geopolitical environment, it may be increasingly difficult to forge mutual understanding and trust across different communities and countries. Psychologists have long studied human tendencies towards biases, which can negatively influence our views on people, especially those we identify as different from ourselves. These biases can also trigger emotions that can guide how we interpret events or how we make decisions. Worse still, biases against those whom we do not understand nor have a connection with, could lead to conflict when misunderstandings occur. As the popular saying goes, people fear what they do not understand – and fear can lead us to actions that put us at the brink of conflict.

In this vein, it is more important today than ever, to create opportunities where leaders and communities can mingle and build friendships, anchored on mutual understanding and trust. And such understadings can be built over time, and more often through informal conversations and shared experiences, than through formal meetings. In fact, one other defining feature of APPSMO is its emphasis on informal relationship-building, over the many meals shared together, the exploration of Singapore’s sights, or other social interactions. More importantly, shared experiences allow us to appreciate the things we have in common, break down language and cultural differences, and recognise that as individuals, we are not so different.

History has shown too, that even in areas of security and geopolitics, relationships have been critical in resolving some of the world’s more distressing challenges. Some of you may know that the path to the formation of ASEAN was not straightforward. In fact, multiple attempts at forming a regional cooperation entity had failed in the 1960s. Yet, in 1967, led by then-Thai Foreign Minister Thanat Khoman, the five founding Foreign Ministers from Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, found opportunities to meet, to share ideas, and to develop closer bonds with each other. This was done in Bangkok over a series of informal conversations, including on the golf course. By the time the Foreign Ministers sat down to talk about the formation of ASEAN, all five of them were aware of their shared determination to form a successful regional organisation, and navigated areas of divergence with relative ease. The formation of ASEAN in 1967 turned out to be a landmark moment for the region. As a collective, we shifted away from a regional atmosphere dominated by tensions emanating from post-colonial independence and the ongoing Cold War, to one that was committed towards peace, cooperation, and stability.

More than 55 years later, ASEAN’s model of fostering friendship and mutual understanding has stood the test of time. In fact, ASEAN has even expanded to incorporate extra-regional countries, and it is testament to ASEAN’s value that our partners both in the Asia-Pacific and beyond have found it useful. The ADMM, in particular, continues to play a key role in fostering mutual understanding and reducing the risk of miscalculation in the Asia-Pacific region, including through the conduct of multilateral exercises with Plus partners including China, the US and India.

The example of the formation of ASEAN was not only monumental in the course of history, but also extraordinary. It tells us that taking the time to engage with one another on a human level, and building mutual understanding and trust can be powerful forces in shaping the trajectory of our world.

Making Incremental Progress Amidst Flux

In the face of complexity, it is human nature to be paralysed by inaction. Indeed, many of the most complex geopolitical and security challenges we face today do not have simple solutions and cannot be resolved overnight.

Rather, as we face these challenges, we should remember that incremental steps taken, lay the groundwork for us to achieve our desired and shared goals of the day. The ongoing tensions in the relationship between the US and China are one example. Tensions have flared on many occasions in recent years, and almost all channels of communication between both powers had been cut off at one point in 2022. There was therefore great significance to US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting in November 2023, where they committed to resuming dialogue, including between both their militaries. The subsequent meeting between US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and Chinese Minister of National Defence Admiral Dong Jun during the Shangri-La Dialogue earlier this year marked another step towards lowering the temperature in their bilateral relations. For many countries in the Asia-Pacific, including in Singapore, these were welcome developments.

While re-establishing communication may not sound significant, in these complex times, doing so is an important first step that sets the stage for further engagement. Communication channels and dialogue are important to enhance mutual understanding, and reduce the risk of miscalculation due to mistrust, thereby helping to avert conflict.

Addressing Complexity through Collaboration

Beyond dealing with a complex geopolitical environment, the emergence of new technology, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has the potential to fundamentally change the way societies operate and the threats that humankind may face in the future. New technological developments could upend existing paradigms, and transform our security environment in ways we may not be able to foresee. This adds a new layer of complexity to the challenges that countries have to tackle.

In addressing complexity, more than ever before, countries must be willing to engage in dialogue and the co-creation of solutions to address common challenges, to be able to manage risks, and achieve our shared goals of preserving peace and security for humankind.

And to this end, multilateral organisations have, and will continue to be, important platforms to facilitate dialogue and cooperation between countries. They allow for countries, big and small, to not only have an equal voice on an international stage, but also to pool together resources to tackle the common threats afflicting the world today.

As technological developments continue unabated, now is also the time for us to come together and take the first of many steps towards ensuring technology can be a source for peace and progress in the world. For instance, in the AI domain, countries are increasingly recognising the importance of conducting dialogue and building consensus early, to manage the potentially destabilising effects of unfettered development in the domain. Singapore is proud to have played our part in helping to build consensus, by co-hosting the regional consultations on Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) for Asia in February this year, alongside the Republic of Korea and the Netherlands. At the recently concluded REAIM Summit in South Korea, which Singapore also co-hosted, about 60 countries endorsed a “Blueprint for Action” declarative document that was intended to provide states with action-oriented guidelines to implement responsible AI within our militaries. This will serve as a good start as we look to develop a global AI governance framework. 

Singapore will also continue to contribute to multilateral cooperation in addressing common challenges faced by the defence and security community, including in tackling emerging threats in new domains. For instance, Singapore established the ADMM Cybersecurity and Information Centre of Excellence, or ACICE, to enhance multilateral cooperation among ASEAN defence establishments against cyber attacks, disinformation and misinformation, for the region’s collective peace and stability.

Besides multilateral cooperation, internally within each country, there is a need for governments to strengthen their compact with their people. Policymakers, including militaries, have to shore up domestic support for their policies. The growing influence of social media has meant that a greater proportion of our domestic population has access to information on geopolitics, and they might disseminate their views and shape public opinion based on a narrow interpretation.  Therefore, there is also an increasing need for governments and policymakers to actively engage the public, to debunk any mis- or dis-information. Sometimes, you will face pressures from the public in making calls, in making decisions. And sometimes, some of these things are not that rational, and you have to balance them. Governments and policymakers also have to create space for dialogue with fellow citizens, and foster a shared understanding of the principles that guide each country’s decision-making and policies. As our Foreign Affairs colleagues like to say, foreign policy begins at home. Only with strong domestic cohesion and unity can governments, including militaries, act in confidence, and make the right calls, to preserve peace and stability in the region and beyond.

Conclusion

Ladies and Gentlemen, as the theme for this year’s APPSMO suggests, we are living in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment, which presents unique challenges. Against this backdrop, platforms such as APPSMO and the Shangri-La Dialogue are more important than ever, in facilitating relationship-building and sharing of insights among defence establishments in the region and beyond.

I encourage you to take advantage of the opportunity that APPSMO offers, to engage in an open exchange of views with your peers and explore innovative solutions to the challenges we face. I also urge you to cultivate meaningful and lasting relationships over the course of the next few days. 

Once again, I congratulate RSIS on achieving this 25-year milestone for APPSMO, and I wish you all a meaningful and enjoyable week ahead.

Thank you.