Chief of Defence Force,

Service Chiefs,

Graduands of 54th Command and Staff Course,

24th Command and Staff Course (National Service),

20th and 21st Command and Staff Course (Executive),

Distinguished guests,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Introduction

This year's Combined Command and Staff College Graduation Ceremony, we sit among this fiery peace, but all of us know that the world out there is certainly turbulent. Security challenges are rising and there is geopolitical turmoil globally. There is a war in Europe fought in Ukraine, there is Middle East tensions not seen since the height of the Syrian Civil War, and US-China tensions in our own backyard, I think the only realistic expectation all of us can have is uncertainty and potential troubles.

This backdrop sets the tone of your graduation as senior officers. While we celebrate your individual achievements, we do well to remember that of 232 officers who graduate today – the 133 SAF regular officers, 36 NS officers, 40 Military Experts, four Warrant Officers, one Singapore Police Force officer, and 18 international officers from 11 countries – that your leadership and decisions at times like these can make a big difference to many lives, your units, organisations and countries.

Complex Geopolitical Landscape and the Role of the Military Profession

As security specialists, I think all of you are acutely aware that global problems, especially those related to security are complex. You do not expect a quick fix for the on-going war in Ukraine, certainly not the endless cycles of violence between the Israelis and Palestinians, or the strategic rivalry between capitalist US, and China with its Communist Party Government. And I think the leader or statesman who can find a better path towards de-escalation and peace for any one of these conundrums deserve a Nobel Prize, if not our lasting gratitude.

But all of us here know that the solutions to disagreements can never be through perpetual violence. Yes, there is a time for war, justified on righteous and moral grounds, as it occurred in World War II – but even then, it is the means to an end which is peace and not perpetuation of hostilities. All of us also know that without understanding and respect for each other's perspectives, our belief and value systems, our motivations, the path to mutual accommodation, let alone reconciliation, cannot be found. Which is why Singapore appreciates the presence of international officers at the GKS CSC. This year, we presented the inaugural "Outstanding International Officer Graduate" award in recognition of this important initiative.

Command and Staff courses equip you as key decision makers of your organisations to be more effective leaders. And for defence establishments, to better defend your country and when needed, to prosecute military operations to that end effectively. If there is war, you are the professionals to prosecute it. But increasingly, emphasis is also given to senior officers for defence diplomacy. Internally, to clarify to their political masters, what military interventions can accomplish, or sometimes more importantly, cannot achieve. Externally, there is a lot that military commanders can do to find common ground with partners and even potential adversaries to avoid conflict, or when conflict is unavoidable, to aim for cessation of hostilities when military goals have been met.

Tonight, I am speaking in realistic rather than dulcet tones, because troubled times call for plain speak. I could mouth many platitudes for you, but there will be a disjunct of what you will face when you return to your units. In stark terms, we enter into a potentially precarious decade that can decide whether this generation will see continued peace or more violence.

10 years ago, I would have said my children's generation, which is somewhere around your generation, would continue to see continued peace. I consider my generation a lucky generation. Post-World War II, now 80 years in peace. I am not so sure for this generation anymore, or your children, whether we will see continued peace. As a proxy for tensions, military spending has gone up. Last year, the total global military expenditure reached a record high of US$2.2 trillion. Asia's defence spending as a whole had already surpassed that of Europe since 2009, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All this means is that the lethal capabilities of militaries around the world would have escalated.

We must also expect the situation in Gaza to inflame jihadi terrorism around the world. The whole gamut of violent demonstrations, increased radicalisation, extreme acts against innocent civilians can be expected in Singapore and elsewhere.

Today's social media aggravates such tendencies. Already horrendous videos of atrocities against women and children arising from the situation in Israel and Gaza have made their rounds. This can only escalate in the weeks and months ahead, along with propaganda and misinformation to radicalise and incite more violence. You can be sure that extremist groups are preparing to exact their toll on Hamas. You do not have any specific information, but your working assumption must be that plots are afoot. For militaries, the need to deal with this disinformation has become a core of their mission, because the ill effects can be as damaging as kinetic attacks.

These challenges that you will face as senior leaders in your organisations are and should be sobering. For the SAF, we take some comfort and confidence that Singapore has invested steadily and substantially in defence capabilities over the past six decades. We have modernised our platforms, whether it is in land, sea, air or digital domains, starting with the Army's Hunter Armoured Fighting Vehicle. More unmanned assets will also be supporting the Army's digitalised fighting platforms. Our first Type 218SG submarine has just returned home this July, and all four of them will be operational by the end of this decade. This year, we also announced that we would acquire more F-35Bs, as part of our plans to support the replacement of our ageing F-16s, which will progressively be retired from the mid-2030s. Similarly, the DIS is steadily building up its platforms - a new digital range is also in the pipeline, to more effectively raise, train and sustain our digital troops.

The SAF is a strong and well-functioning, well-regarded military. But if there is one sobering lesson that the Hamas attack on Israel brings to home, is that security challenges are seldom static. Surprises will occur because that is inherent in our line of work. Incidents like the surprise Hamas terror attack evoke "if-only" reactions. If-only, military intelligence was better; if-only, ground personnel were more alert, if-only, those in charge of communications had pre-empted the threat of the drones; if-only, ground reaction forces were more responsive, many if-onlys.

But if we are honest, these surprise attacks can happen to any one of our militaries. As you go on to lead your units, would any commander dare to say that it will never happen to your unit? Even well-oiled militaries need incisive and decisive leadership that are able to adapt to the constant challenge and dynamic of forces that want to do harm to our people and break the precious peace of countries we live in. One incident is all it took to disrupt the fragile peace in the Middle East. And my own assessment is that incident in Gaza and Israel would have a greater impact in Singapore than the Ukraine invasion. Our risks have gone up, problems are more complex, and you graduate in these times.

Conclusion

I charge all of you here, to lead your units to the best of your abilities. Much rests on your shoulders.

With that, thank you, and have a wonderful evening.